Goal expectancy
0.88Expected goals1.03
From 28 and 28 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Ferrandina 1-1 Paganese Prediction
Defensive grind — model leans Paganese
Estimated win chances: Ferrandina 30.2%, draw 31.6%, Paganese 38.2%. From 28 and 28 competition matches.
Low tempo / cageyTempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleDefensive grind
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
27Cold spellFerrandina
Weighted momentum
Paganese arrives with stronger form weighting (+34 momentum).
61BuildingPaganese
Ferrandina · low scoring · cold formPaganese · Structured / conservative
Ferrandina
6W · 7D · 15LRecent →LDLLLLWDLLDWLWLDDDLWLLWLWLDL
Momentum index
Paganese
16W · 5D · 7LRecent →WLLDWWLWWWLDWWLWDWWDWWDWWLLW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapPaganese +28
Ferrandina
25 pts21% wins
6W · 7D · 15L · 28 played
For18
Against33
Paganese
53 pts57% wins
16W · 5D · 7L · 28 played
For29
Against22
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Ferrandina offensive edge
Ferrandina faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-28 - Paganese offensive edge
Paganese's attack (75%) vs Ferrandina's defense (47%).
+28
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Ferrandinalow scoring · cold form
PaganeseStructured / conservative
H2H in this snapshot
From 1 meeting included in this prediction snapshot.
0Ferrandina0%
1Draws
0Paganese0%