Fluminense 3-1 Atletico Paranaense Prediction

FluminenseFluminense
3 — 1FT
Atletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense
OverviewLineupsStatisticsStandingsEventsPlayersPredictionsFormInjuriesH2H

Updated

FluminenseFluminensevsAtletico ParanaenseAtletico Paranaense

Match DNA · Predictions ↗

Balanced — model leans Fluminense

Estimated win chances: Fluminense 49.6%, draw 27.3%, Atletico Paranaense 23.1%. From 6 and 6 competition matches.

TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceHigh

Outcome model

Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.

Goal expectancy

1.40Expected goals0.86

From 6 and 6 competition matches

Likely scorelines (Poisson)

  • 1–014.8%
  • 1–112.8%
  • 0–010.6%
  • 2–010.4%
  • 0–19.1%

Form & momentum

Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.

52BuildingFluminense
Weighted momentum

Fluminense carries the sharper recent run (+46 momentum).

6Cold spellAtletico Paranaense
Fluminense · low scoringAtletico Paranaense · High-risk / fragile

Fluminense

3W · 0D · 3L
Recent →WLLWWL
Momentum index

Atletico Paranaense

0W · 1D · 5L
Recent →LLDLLL
Momentum index

Form split comparison

Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window

Season record

League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.

Table gapFluminense +8

Fluminense

9 pts
50% wins

3W · 0D · 3L · 6 played

For
4
Against
6
Goal diff -2

Atletico Paranaense

1 pts
0% wins

0W · 1D · 5L · 6 played

For
1
Against
10
Goal diff -9

Season shape comparison

League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals

League depth signals

Extremes, discipline windows, and split stats from the full league profile.

Matchup edges

Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.

  • Fluminense offensive edge

    Fluminense's attack (80%) vs Atletico Paranaense's defense (36%).

    +44
  • Atletico Paranaense offensive edge

    Atletico Paranaense runs into a stronger home defensive profile.

    -44

Team comparison

Comparison indices from the match data partner.

Attack rating

Attacking threat in the final third.

Fluminense80
Atletico Paranaense20

Defense rating

How well each side limits chances.

Fluminense64
Atletico Paranaense36

Momentum

Weighted form score (recent results count more).

Fluminense52
Atletico Paranaense6

Matchup edge

Attack vs opponent defense (positive = favourable matchup).

Fluminense138
Atletico Paranaense-38

Volatility

Higher = more swingy results (big losses, goals against).

Fluminense30
Atletico Paranaense34

Form index

Head-to-head form comparison from the model.

Fluminense90
Atletico Paranaense10

H2H pull

Historical dominance in recent meetings.

Fluminense80
Atletico Paranaense20
Fluminenselow scoring
Atletico ParanaenseHigh-risk / fragile