Goal expectancy
0.84Expected goals1.26
From 18 and 18 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Defensive grind — model leans Cuarte
Estimated win chances: Fuentes 24.8%, draw 29.1%, Cuarte 46.2%. From 18 and 18 competition matches.
Low tempo / cageyTempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleDefensive grind
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
29Cold spellFuentes
Weighted momentum
Cuarte arrives with stronger form weighting (+40 momentum).
69Hot streakCuarte
Fuentes · High-risk / fragileCuarte · compact defense · hot form
Fuentes
6W · 1D · 11LRecent →LLLLLWLWWWLLLLLWDW
Momentum index
Cuarte
10W · 4D · 4LRecent →WWWWWLLWLWDWLWDWDD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapCuarte +15
Fuentes
19 pts33% wins
6W · 1D · 11L · 18 played
For11
Against30
Cuarte
34 pts56% wins
10W · 4D · 4L · 18 played
For19
Against11
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Fuentes offensive edge
Fuentes faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-82 - Cuarte offensive edge
Cuarte's attack (82%) vs Fuentes's defense (0%).
+82
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
FuentesHigh-risk / fragile
Cuartecompact defense · hot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 3 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
0Fuentes0%
2Draws
1Cuarte33%