Goal expectancy
1.88Expected goals1.31
From 9 and 12 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — model leans Gourbeyre
Estimated win chances: Gourbeyre 50.8%, draw 22.5%, Usbm 26.7%. From 9 and 12 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
39Cold spellGourbeyre
Weighted momentum
Momentum is balanced — recent results cancel out.
42MixedUsbm
Gourbeyre · High-risk / fragile
Gourbeyre
3W · 1D · 5LRecent →WLLWDLLLW
Momentum index
Usbm
5W · 1D · 6LRecent →LLWWLLWLWWDL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Gourbeyre
10 pts33% wins
3W · 1D · 5L · 9 played
For20
Against15
Usbm
16 pts42% wins
5W · 1D · 6L · 12 played
For15
Against19
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Gourbeyre offensive edge
Gourbeyre's attack (68%) vs Usbm's defense (53%).
+15 - Usbm offensive edge
Usbm runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-15
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
GourbeyreHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 8 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
4Gourbeyre50%
2Draws
2Usbm25%