Goal expectancy
1.34Expected goals0.99
From 3 and 3 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Guarnizo
Estimated win chances: Guarnizo 44.7%, draw 27.6%, Sámano 27.6%. From 3 and 3 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
58BuildingGuarnizo
Weighted momentum
Guarnizo carries the sharper recent run (+22 momentum).
36Cold spellSámano
Guarnizo · Structured / conservativeSámano · low scoring · cold form
Guarnizo
2W · 0D · 1LRecent →LWW
Momentum index
Sámano
1W · 1D · 1LRecent →LDW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapGuarnizo +2
Guarnizo
6 pts67% wins
2W · 0D · 1L · 3 played
For3
Against1
Sámano
4 pts33% wins
1W · 1D · 1L · 3 played
For3
Against3
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Guarnizo offensive edge
Guarnizo's attack (50%) vs Sámano's defense (25%).
+25 - Sámano offensive edge
Sámano runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-25
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
GuarnizoStructured / conservative
Sámanolow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 6 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Guarnizo50%
3Draws
0Sámano0%