Goal expectancy
1.44Expected goals1.19
From 24 and 24 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Guingamp
Estimated win chances: Guingamp 42.8%, draw 26%, Caen 31.2%. From 24 and 24 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
40MixedGuingamp
Weighted momentum
Caen arrives with stronger form weighting (+11 momentum).
51MixedCaen
Guingamp
8W · 8D · 8LRecent →LLDDWLLWLWDWDDDWDLWLWDLW
Momentum index
Caen
10W · 6D · 8LRecent →WLDWWDWWWLDLDDLDLLLLWWWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapCaen +4
Guingamp
32 pts33% wins
8W · 8D · 8L · 24 played
For30
Against28
Caen
36 pts42% wins
10W · 6D · 8L · 24 played
For33
Against31
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Guingamp offensive edge
Guingamp faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-15 - Caen offensive edge
Caen's attack (50%) vs Guingamp's defense (35%).
+15
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Guingamp60%
0Draws
2Caen40%