Goal expectancy
1.20Expected goals1.54
From 29 and 29 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Aarhus
Estimated win chances: Hb Koge 29.7%, draw 25.2%, Aarhus 45.2%. From 29 and 29 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
25Cold spellHb Koge
Weighted momentum
Aarhus arrives with stronger form weighting (+22 momentum).
47MixedAarhus
Hb Koge · High-risk / fragile
Hb Koge
4W · 6D · 19LRecent →LWLLDLLWDWLDLDLLDLLDLLLWLLLLL
Momentum index
Aarhus
10W · 12D · 7LRecent →WLWDDLLWLDDDWLDWDDDWWWWDDLDLW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapAarhus +24
Hb Koge
18 pts14% wins
4W · 6D · 19L · 29 played
For29
Against63
Aarhus
42 pts34% wins
10W · 12D · 7L · 29 played
For38
Against33
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Hb Koge offensive edge
Hb Koge faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-20 - Aarhus offensive edge
Aarhus's attack (62%) vs Hb Koge's defense (42%).
+20
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Hb KogeHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 2 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1Hb Koge50%
0Draws
1Aarhus50%