Goal expectancy
1.30Expected goals1.11
From 27 and 27 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Heraclea
Estimated win chances: Heraclea 40.9%, draw 27.4%, Sarnese 31.7%. From 27 and 27 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
31Cold spellHeraclea
Weighted momentum
Sarnese arrives with stronger form weighting (+8 momentum).
39Cold spellSarnese
Heraclea · low scoring · cold formSarnese · cold form
Heraclea
9W · 5D · 13LRecent →LLDWDLDLLWLLLLLLWDWWWWLDLWW
Momentum index
Sarnese
7W · 10D · 10LRecent →WLDDWLDLLDDWWDWDLLDLDLLLWWD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapHeraclea +1
Heraclea
32 pts33% wins
9W · 5D · 13L · 27 played
For22
Against27
Sarnese
31 pts26% wins
7W · 10D · 10L · 27 played
For39
Against40
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Heraclea offensive edge
Heraclea faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-20 - Sarnese offensive edge
Sarnese's attack (70%) vs Heraclea's defense (50%).
+20
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Heraclealow scoring · cold form
Sarnesecold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 1 meeting included in this prediction snapshot.
0Heraclea0%
0Draws
1Sarnese100%