Goal expectancy
1.15Expected goals1.40
From 16 and 16 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Progreso
Estimated win chances: Juventud 30.9%, draw 26.4%, Progreso 42.7%. From 16 and 16 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
53BuildingJuventud
Weighted momentum
Progreso arrives with stronger form weighting (+28 momentum).
81Hot streakProgreso
Progreso · compact defense · hot form
Juventud
8W · 3D · 5LRecent →LWWLDDWLWLWWWDLW
Momentum index
Progreso
12W · 3D · 1LRecent →WWLWWWWDWWWDDWWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapProgreso +12
Juventud
27 pts50% wins
8W · 3D · 5L · 16 played
For17
Against17
Progreso
39 pts75% wins
12W · 3D · 1L · 16 played
For34
Against12
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Juventud offensive edge
Juventud faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-35 - Progreso offensive edge
Progreso's attack (75%) vs Juventud's defense (40%).
+35
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Progresocompact defense · hot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 2 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
0Juventud0%
0Draws
2Progreso100%