Goal expectancy
1.13Expected goals1.28
From 6 and 6 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Derthona
Estimated win chances: Lavagnese 32.6%, draw 27.5%, Derthona 39.9%. From 6 and 6 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
35Cold spellLavagnese
Weighted momentum
Derthona arrives with stronger form weighting (+35 momentum).
70Hot streakDerthona
Lavagnese · low scoring · cold formDerthona · compact defense · hot form
Lavagnese
1W · 3D · 2LRecent →LWDDLD
Momentum index
Derthona
3W · 3D · 0LRecent →WWDDDW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapDerthona +6
Lavagnese
6 pts17% wins
1W · 3D · 2L · 6 played
For5
Against7
Derthona
12 pts50% wins
3W · 3D · 0L · 6 played
For10
Against4
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Lavagnese offensive edge
Lavagnese faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-26 - Derthona offensive edge
Derthona's attack (70%) vs Lavagnese's defense (44%).
+26
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Lavagneselow scoring · cold form
Derthonacompact defense · hot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 2 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
0Lavagnese0%
1Draws
1Derthona50%