Model outlook versus market-implied chances (overround removed from decimal odds). For entertainment and analysis only — not betting advice.
Estimated outcome mix from predictions endpoint
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When Ao Tanaka's shot was parried into the warm Elland Road air on Friday night by a sprawling Martin Dubravka, there was one player in the penalty area, eyes-wide, that was more alert than anyone else. Dominic Calvert-Lewin's leap seemed to leave his outstretched boot dangling for an age before his touch clipped the ball into the Burnley net for Leeds' third goal on the night and the Englishman's 13th of the season. Leeds' number nine has matched his tally for his previous three campaigns at Everton combined; and part of the reason for his resurgence has been his fitness.
Leeds United look ready to sell Largie Ramazani for good this summer, with Football Insider reporting the club have slapped a £10 million price tag on the Belgian winger and has no plans to bring him...
If Leeds are able to retain their top-flight status, the majority of supporters are likely to point to wins against relegation rivals Wolves, Burnley and West Ham as the defining moments of the season. The 49-year-old is more likely to point to a 3-2 defeat by Manchester City in late November as the moment his side's fortunes changed - and the numbers back it up. After goals from Phil Foden and Josko Gvardiol put City 2-0 up inside 25 minutes, Leeds were left fearing the worst.
For a few weeks now, Burnley had made it clear Hannibal Mejbri was on the verge of his return from a hamstring injury. This season the midfielder received a four-match ban and was given a £15,000 fine after admitting to spitting at Leeds supporters during Burnley's 2-0 victory at Turf Moor back in October. Being the last name on the teamsheet, it was a long build-up to the inevitable boos which followed "Hannibal" being read out by the stadium announcer.
Leeds United host Burnley on Friday (20:00 BST) needing the points to virtually end any relegation concerns. Burnley, already relegated and now managerless after Scott Parker left the club on Thursday, have little but pride at stake. Leeds know a win would increase pressure on the other relegation candidates ahead of the weekend.
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