Goal expectancy
1.34Expected goals1.28
From 3 and 3 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Lierse 38.3%, draw 26.3%, Genk 35.5%. From 3 and 3 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
25Cold spellLierse
Weighted momentum
Genk arrives with stronger form weighting (+36 momentum).
61BuildingGenk
Lierse · low scoring · cold formGenk · leaky defense
Lierse
0W · 2D · 1LRecent →DDL
Momentum index
Genk
1W · 2D · 0LRecent →WDD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapGenk +3
Lierse
2 pts0% wins
0W · 2D · 1L · 3 played
For1
Against3
Genk
5 pts33% wins
1W · 2D · 0L · 3 played
For6
Against5
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Lierse offensive edge
Lierse faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-24 - Genk offensive edge
Genk's attack (86%) vs Lierse's defense (63%).
+23
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Lierselow scoring · cold form
Genkleaky defense
H2H in this snapshot
From 4 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Lierse50%
2Draws
0Genk0%