Goal expectancy
1.40Expected goals1.44
From 16 and 16 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Lobos Buap 2-0 Toluca Prediction
Open / transitional — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Lobos Buap 36.6%, draw 25.1%, Toluca 38.4%. From 16 and 16 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
38Cold spellLobos Buap
Weighted momentum
Toluca arrives with stronger form weighting (+13 momentum).
51MixedToluca
Lobos Buap · cold form
Lobos Buap
4W · 4D · 8LRecent →LWDDDWWLLLLLDLWL
Momentum index
Toluca
8W · 2D · 6LRecent →LDWLWLWWWLLWWDLW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapToluca +10
Lobos Buap
16 pts25% wins
4W · 4D · 8L · 16 played
For19
Against25
Toluca
26 pts50% wins
8W · 2D · 6L · 16 played
For27
Against20
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Lobos Buap offensive edge
Lobos Buap faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-9 - Toluca offensive edge
Toluca's attack (47%) vs Lobos Buap's defense (38%).
+9
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Lobos Buapcold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 2 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1Lobos Buap50%
0Draws
1Toluca50%