Goal expectancy
2.18Expected goals1.38
From 11 and 12 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Logan Lightning 1-0 Capalaba Prediction
Open / transitional — model leans Logan Lightning
Estimated win chances: Logan Lightning 55.7%, draw 20.4%, Capalaba 23.9%. From 11 and 12 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityMedium
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
44MixedLogan Lightning
Weighted momentum
Logan Lightning carries the sharper recent run (+25 momentum).
19Cold spellCapalaba
Logan Lightning · leaky defenseCapalaba · High-risk / fragile
Logan Lightning
4W · 2D · 5LRecent →WWLLLLDDWWL
Momentum index
Capalaba
2W · 1D · 9LRecent →LLLLLWWLDLLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Logan Lightning
14 pts36% wins
4W · 2D · 5L · 11 played
For19
Against22
Capalaba
7 pts17% wins
2W · 1D · 9L · 12 played
For14
Against34
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Logan Lightning offensive edge
Logan Lightning's attack (54%) vs Capalaba's defense (39%).
+15 - Capalaba offensive edge
Capalaba runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-15
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Logan Lightningleaky defense
CapalabaHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 10 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
4Logan Lightning40%
3Draws
3Capalaba30%