Goal expectancy
1.68Expected goals1.29
From 12 and 12 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — model leans Lorient
Estimated win chances: Lorient 46.6%, draw 23.9%, Guingamp 29.5%. From 12 and 12 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
61BuildingLorient
Weighted momentum
Lorient carries the sharper recent run (+11 momentum).
50MixedGuingamp
Lorient
7W · 2D · 3LRecent →LWDWWWLDWLWW
Momentum index
Guingamp
6W · 1D · 5LRecent →WWLLLWLDWLWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapLorient +4
Lorient
23 pts58% wins
7W · 2D · 3L · 12 played
For23
Against14
Guingamp
19 pts50% wins
6W · 1D · 5L · 12 played
For20
Against16
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Lorient offensive edge
Lorient's attack (74%) vs Guingamp's defense (63%).
+11 - Guingamp offensive edge
Guingamp runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-12
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
H2H in this snapshot
From 6 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Lorient50%
2Draws
1Guingamp17%