Goal expectancy
1.39Expected goals1.38
From 26 and 26 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Luarca 37.5%, draw 25.4%, Colunga 37.1%. From 26 and 26 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
35Cold spellLuarca
Weighted momentum
Colunga arrives with stronger form weighting (+10 momentum).
45MixedColunga
Luarca · High-risk / fragile
Luarca
6W · 6D · 14LRecent →WWLDLLLLDWDLLDLWDWWLLLLDLL
Momentum index
Colunga
9W · 7D · 10LRecent →WLLWWLDDLDDDWLWWDLLWLWDWLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapColunga +10
Luarca
24 pts23% wins
6W · 6D · 14L · 26 played
For34
Against52
Colunga
34 pts35% wins
9W · 7D · 10L · 26 played
For28
Against32
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Luarca offensive edge
Luarca faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-3 - Colunga offensive edge
Colunga's attack (47%) vs Luarca's defense (44%).
+3
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
LuarcaHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1Luarca20%
4Draws
0Colunga0%