Goal expectancy
1.56Expected goals1.20
From 10 and 10 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Luarca
Estimated win chances: Luarca 45.7%, draw 25%, Condal 29.3%. From 10 and 10 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
36Cold spellLuarca
Weighted momentum
Luarca carries the sharper recent run (+20 momentum).
16Cold spellCondal
Luarca · High-risk / fragileCondal · low scoring · cold form
Luarca
2W · 2D · 6LRecent →DWWLLLLDLL
Momentum index
Condal
1W · 2D · 7LRecent →LLDLLDWLLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapLuarca +3
Luarca
8 pts20% wins
2W · 2D · 6L · 10 played
For14
Against22
Condal
5 pts10% wins
1W · 2D · 7L · 10 played
For4
Against15
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Luarca offensive edge
Luarca's attack (100%) vs Condal's defense (43%).
+57 - Condal offensive edge
Condal runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-57
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
LuarcaHigh-risk / fragile
Condallow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 2 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
0Luarca0%
2Draws
0Condal0%