Maritimo 2-4 Nacional Prediction

MaritimoMaritimo
2 — 4FT
NacionalNacional
OverviewLineupsStatisticsStandingsEventsPlayersPredictionsFormInjuriesH2H

Updated

MaritimoMaritimovsNacionalNacional

Match DNA · Predictions ↗

Open / transitional — model leans Maritimo

Estimated win chances: Maritimo 51.4%, draw 23.9%, Nacional 24.7%. From 25 and 25 competition matches.

TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh

Outcome model

Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.

Goal expectancy

1.71Expected goals1.11

From 25 and 25 competition matches

Likely scorelines (Poisson)

  • 1–111.7%
  • 1–010.6%
  • 2–110%
  • 2–09%
  • 0–16.9%

Form & momentum

Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.

66BuildingMaritimo
Weighted momentum

Maritimo carries the sharper recent run (+18 momentum).

48MixedNacional
Maritimo · hot formNacional · leaky defense

Maritimo

14W · 6D · 5L
Recent →WWDWLWWWLWDWLLDWDWDWWWWLD
Momentum index

Nacional

9W · 5D · 11L
Recent →WWLDLWWLLWDWDLDLWLWLWLLLD
Momentum index

Form split comparison

Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window

Season record

League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.

Table gapMaritimo +16

Maritimo

48 pts
56% wins

14W · 6D · 5L · 25 played

For
37
Against
27
Goal diff +10

Nacional

32 pts
36% wins

9W · 5D · 11L · 25 played

For
33
Against
42
Goal diff -9

Season shape comparison

League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals

League depth signals

Extremes, discipline windows, and split stats from the full league profile.

Matchup edges

Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.

  • Maritimo offensive edge

    Maritimo's attack (41%) vs Nacional's defense (33%).

    +8
  • Nacional offensive edge

    Nacional runs into a stronger home defensive profile.

    -8

Team comparison

Comparison indices from the match data partner.

Attack rating

Attacking threat in the final third.

Maritimo41
Nacional59

Defense rating

How well each side limits chances.

Maritimo67
Nacional33

Momentum

Weighted form score (recent results count more).

Maritimo66
Nacional48

Matchup edge

Attack vs opponent defense (positive = favourable matchup).

Maritimo66
Nacional34

Volatility

Higher = more swingy results (big losses, goals against).

Maritimo30
Nacional34

Form index

Head-to-head form comparison from the model.

Maritimo59
Nacional41

H2H pull

Historical dominance in recent meetings.

Maritimo50
Nacional50
Maritimohot form
Nacionalleaky defense