Goal expectancy
1.82Expected goals1.34
From 8 and 8 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — model leans Marseille
Estimated win chances: Marseille 48.8%, draw 22.9%, Toulouse 28.3%. From 8 and 8 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
58BuildingMarseille
Weighted momentum
Marseille carries the sharper recent run (+9 momentum).
49MixedToulouse
Marseille
4W · 0D · 4LRecent →WWWLLLLW
Momentum index
Toulouse
2W · 4D · 2LRecent →DWDWDLDL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapMarseille +2
Marseille
12 pts50% wins
4W · 0D · 4L · 8 played
For18
Against13
Toulouse
10 pts25% wins
2W · 4D · 2L · 8 played
For12
Against11
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Marseille offensive edge
Marseille faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-2 - Toulouse offensive edge
Toulouse's attack (45%) vs Marseille's defense (43%).
+2
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
H2H in this snapshot
From 10 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Marseille30%
4Draws
3Toulouse30%