Middlesbrough 2-2 Derby Prediction

MiddlesbroughMiddlesbrough
2 — 2FT
DerbyDerby
OverviewLineupsStatisticsStandingsEventsPlayersPredictionsFormInjuriesH2H

Updated

MiddlesbroughMiddlesbroughvsDerbyDerby

Match DNA · Predictions ↗

Open / transitional — model leans Middlesbrough

Estimated win chances: Middlesbrough 40.7%, draw 24.4%, Derby 34.9%. From 8 and 8 competition matches.

TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow

Outcome model

Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.

Goal expectancy

1.55Expected goals1.42

From 8 and 8 competition matches

Likely scorelines (Poisson)

  • 1–111.7%
  • 2–19.1%
  • 1–28.3%
  • 1–08.2%
  • 0–17.6%

Form & momentum

Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.

48MixedMiddlesbrough
Weighted momentum

Momentum is balanced — recent results cancel out.

51MixedDerby
Middlesbrough · leaky defense

Middlesbrough

4W · 0D · 4L
Recent →LWLWLWWL
Momentum index

Derby

3W · 2D · 3L
Recent →WLWLWDLD
Momentum index

Form split comparison

Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window

Season record

League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.

Table gapMiddlesbrough +1

Middlesbrough

12 pts
50% wins

4W · 0D · 4L · 8 played

For
12
Against
14
Goal diff -2

Derby

11 pts
38% wins

3W · 2D · 3L · 8 played

For
13
Against
11
Goal diff +2

Season shape comparison

League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals

League depth signals

Extremes, discipline windows, and split stats from the full league profile.

Matchup edges

Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.

  • Middlesbrough offensive edge

    Middlesbrough faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.

    -22
  • Derby offensive edge

    Derby's attack (59%) vs Middlesbrough's defense (38%).

    +21

Team comparison

Comparison indices from the match data partner.

Attack rating

Attacking threat in the final third.

Middlesbrough41
Derby59

Defense rating

How well each side limits chances.

Middlesbrough38
Derby63

Momentum

Weighted form score (recent results count more).

Middlesbrough48
Derby51

Matchup edge

Attack vs opponent defense (positive = favourable matchup).

Middlesbrough6
Derby92

Volatility

Higher = more swingy results (big losses, goals against).

Middlesbrough37
Derby30

Form index

Head-to-head form comparison from the model.

Middlesbrough40
Derby60

H2H pull

Historical dominance in recent meetings.

Middlesbrough100
Derby0
Middlesbroughleaky defense