Goal expectancy
1.41Expected goals1.46
From 13 and 13 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Napoli 36.4%, draw 24.9%, Inter 38.7%. From 13 and 13 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
61BuildingNapoli
Weighted momentum
Inter arrives with stronger form weighting (+18 momentum).
79Hot streakInter
Inter · compact defense · hot form
Napoli
7W · 3D · 3LRecent →WLWDWLWWDDLWW
Momentum index
Inter
10W · 2D · 1LRecent →DWWWWDWLWWWWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapInter +8
Napoli
24 pts54% wins
7W · 3D · 3L · 13 played
For26
Against14
Inter
32 pts77% wins
10W · 2D · 1L · 13 played
For30
Against7
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Napoli offensive edge
Napoli faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-21 - Inter offensive edge
Inter's attack (50%) vs Napoli's defense (29%).
+21
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Intercompact defense · hot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 3 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Napoli67%
1Draws
0Inter0%