Goal expectancy
1.58Expected goals1.00
From 28 and 28 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Nice
Estimated win chances: Nice 50.8%, draw 25.2%, Lorient 24%. From 28 and 28 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
44MixedNice
Weighted momentum
Nice carries the sharper recent run (+13 momentum).
31Cold spellLorient
Nice · Structured / conservativeLorient · High-risk / fragile
Nice
12W · 8D · 8LRecent →DLWLLDLLDWLWLWLWDWWWWDWWWDDD
Momentum index
Lorient
6W · 8D · 14LRecent →LLDLWLWWWDLLLLDLLDLWDLLDLWDD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapNice +18
Nice
44 pts43% wins
12W · 8D · 8L · 28 played
For28
Against22
Lorient
26 pts21% wins
6W · 8D · 14L · 28 played
For35
Against52
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Nice offensive edge
Nice's attack (60%) vs Lorient's defense (47%).
+13 - Lorient offensive edge
Lorient runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-13
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
NiceStructured / conservative
LorientHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 6 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Nice33%
3Draws
1Lorient17%