Nova Mutum EC 3-2 Chapada Prediction

Nova Mutum ECNova Mutum EC
3 — 2FT
ChapadaChapada
OverviewLineupsStatisticsStandingsEventsPlayersPredictionsFormInjuriesH2H

Updated

Nova Mutum EcNova Mutum EcvsChapadaChapada

Match DNA · Predictions ↗

Balanced — too close to call

Estimated win chances: Nova Mutum Ec 34.4%, draw 26.5%, Chapada 39.1%. From 5 and 5 competition matches.

TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow

Outcome model

Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.

Goal expectancy

1.24Expected goals1.34

From 5 and 5 competition matches

Likely scorelines (Poisson)

  • 1–112.9%
  • 0–110.4%
  • 1–09.6%
  • 1–28.6%
  • 2–18%

Form & momentum

Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.

19Cold spellNova Mutum Ec
Weighted momentum

Chapada arrives with stronger form weighting (+38 momentum).

57BuildingChapada
Nova Mutum Ec · High-risk / fragile

Nova Mutum Ec

0W · 3D · 2L
Recent →LDDLD
Momentum index

Chapada

2W · 2D · 1L
Recent →DWWLD
Momentum index

Form split comparison

Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window

Season record

League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.

Table gapChapada +5

Nova Mutum Ec

3 pts
0% wins

0W · 3D · 2L · 5 played

For
4
Against
9
Goal diff -5

Chapada

8 pts
40% wins

2W · 2D · 1L · 5 played

For
7
Against
5
Goal diff +2

Season shape comparison

League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals

League depth signals

Extremes, discipline windows, and split stats from the full league profile.

Matchup edges

Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.

  • Nova Mutum Ec offensive edge

    Nova Mutum Ec faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.

    -28
  • Chapada offensive edge

    Chapada's attack (64%) vs Nova Mutum Ec's defense (36%).

    +28

Team comparison

Comparison indices from the match data partner.

Attack rating

Attacking threat in the final third.

Nova Mutum Ec36
Chapada64

Defense rating

How well each side limits chances.

Nova Mutum Ec36
Chapada64

Momentum

Weighted form score (recent results count more).

Nova Mutum Ec19
Chapada57

Matchup edge

Attack vs opponent defense (positive = favourable matchup).

Nova Mutum Ec-6
Chapada106

Volatility

Higher = more swingy results (big losses, goals against).

Nova Mutum Ec37
Chapada30

Form index

Head-to-head form comparison from the model.

Nova Mutum Ec27
Chapada73

H2H pull

Historical dominance in recent meetings.

Nova Mutum Ec0
Chapada0
Nova Mutum EcHigh-risk / fragile