Goal expectancy
1.41Expected goals1.46
From 13 and 13 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Olympic 36.4%, draw 24.9%, Ariana 38.7%. From 13 and 13 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
42MixedOlympic
Weighted momentum
Ariana arrives with stronger form weighting (+9 momentum).
51MixedAriana
Olympic · leaky defense
Olympic
4W · 5D · 4LRecent →DLDWWDLDDLWWL
Momentum index
Ariana
5W · 6D · 2LRecent →DWLDWDDWDLWDW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapAriana +4
Olympic
17 pts31% wins
4W · 5D · 4L · 13 played
For17
Against23
Ariana
21 pts38% wins
5W · 6D · 2L · 13 played
For21
Against15
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Olympic offensive edge
Olympic's attack (47%) vs Ariana's defense (38%).
+9 - Ariana offensive edge
Ariana runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-9
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Olympicleaky defense
H2H in this snapshot
From 4 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Olympic50%
1Draws
1Ariana25%