Goal expectancy
1.37Expected goals1.35
From 4 and 3 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Oriental 37.6%, draw 25.7%, Progreso 36.7%. From 4 and 3 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
72Hot streakOriental
Weighted momentum
Progreso arrives with stronger form weighting (+28 momentum).
100Hot streakProgreso
Oriental · compact defense · hot formProgreso · compact defense · hot form
Oriental
3W · 0D · 1LRecent →WLWW
Momentum index
Progreso
3W · 0D · 0LRecent →WWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Oriental
9 pts75% wins
3W · 0D · 1L · 4 played
For8
Against3
Progreso
9 pts100% wins
3W · 0D · 0L · 3 played
For8
Against0
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Oriental offensive edge
Oriental faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-50 - Progreso offensive edge
Progreso's attack (50%) vs Oriental's defense (0%).
+50
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Orientalcompact defense · hot form
Progresocompact defense · hot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 4 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
0Oriental0%
2Draws
2Progreso50%