Goal expectancy
1.63Expected goals1.15
From 4 and 4 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Penarol
Estimated win chances: Penarol 48.5%, draw 24.6%, Danubio 26.9%. From 4 and 4 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
78Hot streakPenarol
Weighted momentum
Penarol carries the sharper recent run (+28 momentum).
50MixedDanubio
Penarol · hot form
Penarol
3W · 0D · 1LRecent →WWLW
Momentum index
Danubio
2W · 1D · 1LRecent →DLWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapPenarol +2
Penarol
9 pts75% wins
3W · 0D · 1L · 4 played
For7
Against4
Danubio
7 pts50% wins
2W · 1D · 1L · 4 played
For5
Against6
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Penarol offensive edge
Penarol's attack (58%) vs Danubio's defense (40%).
+18 - Danubio offensive edge
Danubio runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-18
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Penarolhot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 9 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
5Penarol56%
1Draws
3Danubio33%