Goal expectancy
1.57Expected goals1.12
From 21 and 21 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Penarol 1-0 Defensor Sporting Prediction
Balanced — model leans Penarol
Estimated win chances: Penarol 47.7%, draw 25.1%, Defensor Sporting 27.1%. From 21 and 21 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
78Hot streakPenarol
Weighted momentum
Penarol carries the sharper recent run (+16 momentum).
62BuildingDefensor Sporting
Penarol · compact defense · hot form
Penarol
16W · 4D · 1LRecent →WWDWDLWWWWDWWWWDWWWWW
Momentum index
Defensor Sporting
11W · 6D · 4LRecent →LWDWDWWWLWWDLDWDWLDWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapPenarol +13
Penarol
52 pts76% wins
16W · 4D · 1L · 21 played
For40
Against12
Defensor Sporting
39 pts52% wins
11W · 6D · 4L · 21 played
For38
Against21
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Penarol offensive edge
Penarol's attack (64%) vs Defensor Sporting's defense (43%).
+21 - Defensor Sporting offensive edge
Defensor Sporting runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-21
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Penarolcompact defense · hot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 2 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1Penarol50%
0Draws
1Defensor Sporting50%