Goal expectancy
1.52Expected goals0.91
From 12 and 12 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Penarol 2-0 Defensor Sporting Prediction
Balanced — model leans Penarol
Estimated win chances: Penarol 51.5%, draw 25.9%, Defensor Sporting 22.6%. From 12 and 12 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
86Hot streakPenarol
Weighted momentum
Penarol carries the sharper recent run (+22 momentum).
64BuildingDefensor Sporting
Penarol · compact defense · hot form
Penarol
9W · 2D · 1LRecent →WWWWWWLDWWWD
Momentum index
Defensor Sporting
5W · 4D · 3LRecent →WWDWWLDWDLDL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapPenarol +10
Penarol
29 pts75% wins
9W · 2D · 1L · 12 played
For22
Against3
Defensor Sporting
19 pts42% wins
5W · 4D · 3L · 12 played
For17
Against12
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Penarol offensive edge
Penarol's attack (50%) vs Defensor Sporting's defense (0%).
+50 - Defensor Sporting offensive edge
Defensor Sporting runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-50
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Penarolcompact defense · hot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 3 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Penarol67%
0Draws
1Defensor Sporting33%