Peniche 3-2 UD da Serra Prediction

PenichePeniche
3 — 2FT
UD da SerraUD da Serra
OverviewLineupsStatisticsStandingsEventsPlayersPredictionsFormInjuriesH2H

Updated

PenichePenichevsUd Da SerraUd Da Serra

Match DNA · Predictions ↗

Balanced — model leans Ud Da Serra

Estimated win chances: Peniche 34.2%, draw 26.1%, Ud Da Serra 39.7%. From 11 and 11 competition matches.

TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow

Outcome model

Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.

Goal expectancy

1.26Expected goals1.38

From 11 and 11 competition matches

Likely scorelines (Poisson)

  • 1–112.7%
  • 0–110.1%
  • 1–09.2%
  • 1–28.8%
  • 2–18%

Form & momentum

Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.

34Cold spellPeniche
Weighted momentum

Ud Da Serra arrives with stronger form weighting (+20 momentum).

54BuildingUd Da Serra
Peniche · low scoring · cold form

Peniche

4W · 1D · 6L
Recent →LLDWLLWLWWL
Momentum index

Ud Da Serra

5W · 4D · 2L
Recent →DDWWLDLWWDW
Momentum index

Form split comparison

Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window

Season record

League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.

Table gapUd Da Serra +6

Peniche

13 pts
36% wins

4W · 1D · 6L · 11 played

For
11
Against
18
Goal diff -7

Ud Da Serra

19 pts
45% wins

5W · 4D · 2L · 11 played

For
18
Against
12
Goal diff +6

Season shape comparison

League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals

League depth signals

Extremes, discipline windows, and split stats from the full league profile.

Matchup edges

Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.

  • Peniche offensive edge

    Peniche faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.

    -38
  • Ud Da Serra offensive edge

    Ud Da Serra's attack (71%) vs Peniche's defense (33%).

    +38

Team comparison

Comparison indices from the match data partner.

Attack rating

Attacking threat in the final third.

Peniche29
Ud Da Serra71

Defense rating

How well each side limits chances.

Peniche33
Ud Da Serra67

Momentum

Weighted form score (recent results count more).

Peniche34
Ud Da Serra54

Matchup edge

Attack vs opponent defense (positive = favourable matchup).

Peniche-26
Ud Da Serra126

Volatility

Higher = more swingy results (big losses, goals against).

Peniche32
Ud Da Serra30

Form index

Head-to-head form comparison from the model.

Peniche33
Ud Da Serra67

H2H pull

Historical dominance in recent meetings.

Peniche0
Ud Da Serra0
Penichelow scoring · cold form