Goal expectancy
1.14Expected goals1.37
From 18 and 18 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Cesena
Estimated win chances: Perugia 31.2%, draw 26.7%, Cesena 42.1%. From 18 and 18 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
53BuildingPerugia
Weighted momentum
Cesena arrives with stronger form weighting (+28 momentum).
81Hot streakCesena
Perugia · compact defenseCesena · compact defense · hot form
Perugia
7W · 9D · 2LRecent →LDWDDWLWDWDWWDDWDD
Momentum index
Cesena
13W · 4D · 1LRecent →DWWWWWWDWDDWWWWWWL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapCesena +13
Perugia
30 pts39% wins
7W · 9D · 2L · 18 played
For21
Against15
Cesena
43 pts72% wins
13W · 4D · 1L · 18 played
For41
Against13
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Perugia offensive edge
Perugia faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-37 - Cesena offensive edge
Cesena's attack (62%) vs Perugia's defense (25%).
+37
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Perugiacompact defense
Cesenacompact defense · hot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 7 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1Perugia14%
4Draws
2Cesena29%