Goal expectancy
1.28Expected goals2.06
From 16 and 16 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Phoenix 1-4 Defence Force Prediction
Open / transitional — model leans Defence Force
Estimated win chances: Phoenix 23.4%, draw 21.2%, Defence Force 55.4%. From 16 and 16 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityMedium
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskLow
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
36Cold spellPhoenix
Weighted momentum
Defence Force arrives with stronger form weighting (+55 momentum).
91Hot streakDefence Force
Phoenix · High-risk / fragileDefence Force · compact defense · hot form
Phoenix
5W · 0D · 11LRecent →LLWWWLLLWLLLWLLL
Momentum index
Defence Force
13W · 3D · 0LRecent →WWWDWWWWWWWWWWDD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapDefence Force +27
Phoenix
15 pts31% wins
5W · 0D · 11L · 16 played
For23
Against38
Defence Force
42 pts81% wins
13W · 3D · 0L · 16 played
For43
Against13
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Phoenix offensive edge
Phoenix faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-34 - Defence Force offensive edge
Defence Force's attack (59%) vs Phoenix's defense (25%).
+34
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
PhoenixHigh-risk / fragile
Defence Forcecompact defense · hot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
4Phoenix80%
0Draws
1Defence Force20%