Goal expectancy
1.74Expected goals1.36
From 7 and 7 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Progreso 1-0 Boston River Prediction
Open / transitional — model leans Progreso
Estimated win chances: Progreso 46.5%, draw 23.4%, Boston River 30.1%. From 7 and 7 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
76Hot streakProgreso
Weighted momentum
Progreso carries the sharper recent run (+8 momentum).
68Hot streakBoston River
Progreso · hot formBoston River · compact defense · hot form
Progreso
5W · 2D · 0LRecent →DWWDWWW
Momentum index
Boston River
4W · 3D · 0LRecent →DWDWWDW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapProgreso +2
Progreso
17 pts71% wins
5W · 2D · 0L · 7 played
For18
Against11
Boston River
15 pts57% wins
4W · 3D · 0L · 7 played
For11
Against6
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Progreso offensive edge
Progreso faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-1 - Boston River offensive edge
Boston River's attack (43%) vs Progreso's defense (42%).
+1
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Progresohot form
Boston Rivercompact defense · hot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 3 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1Progreso33%
1Draws
1Boston River33%