Goal expectancy
1.44Expected goals1.51
From 4 and 4 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Progreso 2-2 Boston River Prediction
Open / transitional — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Progreso 36.2%, draw 24.5%, Boston River 39.3%. From 4 and 4 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityMedium
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
11Cold spellProgreso
Weighted momentum
Momentum is balanced — recent results cancel out.
17Cold spellBoston River
Progreso · High-risk / fragileBoston River · low scoring · cold form
Progreso
0W · 1D · 3LRecent →DLLL
Momentum index
Boston River
0W · 2D · 2LRecent →LDDL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapBoston River +1
Progreso
1 pts0% wins
0W · 1D · 3L · 4 played
For4
Against13
Boston River
2 pts0% wins
0W · 2D · 2L · 4 played
For3
Against6
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Progreso offensive edge
Progreso faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-11 - Boston River offensive edge
Boston River's attack (43%) vs Progreso's defense (32%).
+11
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
ProgresoHigh-risk / fragile
Boston Riverlow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Progreso60%
1Draws
1Boston River20%