Goal expectancy
1.28Expected goals1.05
From 6 and 6 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Progreso 0-1 Boston River Prediction
Balanced — model leans Progreso
Estimated win chances: Progreso 41.7%, draw 27.9%, Boston River 30.4%. From 6 and 6 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
38Cold spellProgreso
Weighted momentum
Progreso carries the sharper recent run (+27 momentum).
11Cold spellBoston River
Progreso · High-risk / fragileBoston River · low scoring · cold form
Progreso
1W · 2D · 3LRecent →WDDLLL
Momentum index
Boston River
0W · 2D · 4LRecent →LLDDLL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapProgreso +3
Progreso
5 pts17% wins
1W · 2D · 3L · 6 played
For5
Against10
Boston River
2 pts0% wins
0W · 2D · 4L · 6 played
For2
Against7
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Progreso offensive edge
Progreso's attack (83%) vs Boston River's defense (58%).
+25 - Boston River offensive edge
Boston River runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-25
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
ProgresoHigh-risk / fragile
Boston Riverlow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 9 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
5Progreso56%
2Draws
2Boston River22%