Goal expectancy
1.77Expected goals1.33
From 15 and 15 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Progreso 1-0 CA River Plate Prediction
Open / transitional — model leans Progreso
Estimated win chances: Progreso 47.8%, draw 23.2%, Ca River Plate 28.9%. From 15 and 15 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
38Cold spellProgreso
Weighted momentum
Progreso carries the sharper recent run (+13 momentum).
25Cold spellCa River Plate
Progreso · High-risk / fragileCa River Plate · High-risk / fragile
Progreso
7W · 3D · 5LRecent →LLLLLWDWDWWDWWW
Momentum index
Ca River Plate
3W · 5D · 7LRecent →DLLDLLDLWDDLWWL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapProgreso +10
Progreso
24 pts47% wins
7W · 3D · 5L · 15 played
For25
Against25
Ca River Plate
14 pts20% wins
3W · 5D · 7L · 15 played
For20
Against25
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Progreso offensive edge
Progreso faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-28 - Ca River Plate offensive edge
Ca River Plate's attack (78%) vs Progreso's defense (50%).
+28
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
ProgresoHigh-risk / fragile
Ca River PlateHigh-risk / fragile
H2H in this snapshot
From 6 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Progreso50%
1Draws
2Ca River Plate33%