Goal expectancy
1.57Expected goals1.26
From 14 and 14 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Progreso 0-1 Cerro Largo Prediction
Open / transitional — model leans Progreso
Estimated win chances: Progreso 44.6%, draw 24.8%, Cerro Largo 30.6%. From 14 and 14 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
43MixedProgreso
Weighted momentum
Momentum is balanced — recent results cancel out.
40MixedCerro Largo
Progreso · leaky defense
Progreso
7W · 3D · 4LRecent →LLLLWDWDWWDWWW
Momentum index
Cerro Largo
5W · 3D · 6LRecent →LLLWWDWLLDWWDL
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapProgreso +6
Progreso
24 pts50% wins
7W · 3D · 4L · 14 played
For25
Against24
Cerro Largo
18 pts36% wins
5W · 3D · 6L · 14 played
For15
Against16
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Progreso offensive edge
Progreso faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-22 - Cerro Largo offensive edge
Cerro Largo's attack (64%) vs Progreso's defense (42%).
+22
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Progresoleaky defense
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
2Progreso40%
1Draws
2Cerro Largo40%