Goal expectancy
1.21Expected goals1.16
From 13 and 13 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Progreso 0-1 Cerro Largo Prediction
Balanced — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Progreso 37.3%, draw 27.9%, Cerro Largo 34.9%. From 13 and 13 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
29Cold spellProgreso
Weighted momentum
Momentum is balanced — recent results cancel out.
34Cold spellCerro Largo
Progreso · low scoring · cold formCerro Largo · low scoring · cold form
Progreso
2W · 4D · 7LRecent →LWLLDDLWDDLLL
Momentum index
Cerro Largo
4W · 2D · 7LRecent →LLDDWLWWLLLLW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapCerro Largo +4
Progreso
10 pts15% wins
2W · 4D · 7L · 13 played
For11
Against20
Cerro Largo
14 pts31% wins
4W · 2D · 7L · 13 played
For13
Against16
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Progreso offensive edge
Progreso faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-12 - Cerro Largo offensive edge
Cerro Largo's attack (50%) vs Progreso's defense (38%).
+12
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Progresolow scoring · cold form
Cerro Largolow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 10 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
4Progreso40%
2Draws
4Cerro Largo40%