Goal expectancy
0.92Expected goals1.35
From 6 and 6 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Danubio
Estimated win chances: Progreso 25.5%, draw 27.7%, Danubio 46.7%. From 6 and 6 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
11Cold spellProgreso
Weighted momentum
Danubio arrives with stronger form weighting (+58 momentum).
69Hot streakDanubio
Progreso · low scoring · cold formDanubio · compact defense · hot form
Progreso
0W · 2D · 4LRecent →DLLLLD
Momentum index
Danubio
4W · 2D · 0LRecent →DDWWWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapDanubio +12
Progreso
2 pts0% wins
0W · 2D · 4L · 6 played
For2
Against9
Danubio
14 pts67% wins
4W · 2D · 0L · 6 played
For10
Against3
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Progreso offensive edge
Progreso faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-57 - Danubio offensive edge
Danubio's attack (82%) vs Progreso's defense (25%).
+57
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Progresolow scoring · cold form
Danubiocompact defense · hot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 3 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
0Progreso0%
2Draws
1Danubio33%