Progreso 1-4 Defensor Sporting Prediction

ProgresoProgreso
1 — 4FT
Defensor SportingDefensor Sporting
OverviewLineupsStatisticsStandingsEventsPlayersPredictionsFormInjuriesH2H

Updated

ProgresoProgresovsDefensor SportingDefensor Sporting

Match DNA · Predictions ↗

Open / transitional — model leans Progreso

Estimated win chances: Progreso 42.1%, draw 24.6%, Defensor Sporting 33.2%. From 3 and 3 competition matches.

TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium

Outcome model

Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.

Goal expectancy

1.55Expected goals1.35

From 3 and 3 competition matches

Likely scorelines (Poisson)

  • 1–111.9%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 1–08.8%
  • 1–28%
  • 0–17.7%

Form & momentum

Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.

72Hot streakProgreso
Weighted momentum

Defensor Sporting arrives with stronger form weighting (+12 momentum).

84Hot streakDefensor Sporting
Progreso · compact defense · hot formDefensor Sporting · compact defense · hot form

Progreso

2W · 1D · 0L
Recent →DWW
Momentum index

Defensor Sporting

2W · 1D · 0L
Recent →WWD
Momentum index

Form split comparison

Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window

Season record

League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.

Table gapLevel on points

Progreso

7 pts
67% wins

2W · 1D · 0L · 3 played

For
7
Against
2
Goal diff +5

Defensor Sporting

7 pts
67% wins

2W · 1D · 0L · 3 played

For
8
Against
2
Goal diff +6

Season shape comparison

League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals

League depth signals

Extremes, discipline windows, and split stats from the full league profile.

Matchup edges

Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.

  • Progreso offensive edge

    Progreso faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.

    -3
  • Defensor Sporting offensive edge

    Defensor Sporting's attack (53%) vs Progreso's defense (50%).

    +3

Team comparison

Comparison indices from the match data partner.

Attack rating

Attacking threat in the final third.

Progreso47
Defensor Sporting53

Defense rating

How well each side limits chances.

Progreso50
Defensor Sporting50

Momentum

Weighted form score (recent results count more).

Progreso72
Defensor Sporting84

Matchup edge

Attack vs opponent defense (positive = favourable matchup).

Progreso44
Defensor Sporting56

Volatility

Higher = more swingy results (big losses, goals against).

Progreso30
Defensor Sporting30

Form index

Head-to-head form comparison from the model.

Progreso50
Defensor Sporting50

H2H pull

Historical dominance in recent meetings.

Progreso0
Defensor Sporting0
Progresocompact defense · hot form
Defensor Sportingcompact defense · hot form