Goal expectancy
1.71Expected goals1.45
From 11 and 11 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Progreso 1-4 Defensor Sporting Prediction
Open / transitional — model leans Progreso
Estimated win chances: Progreso 43.9%, draw 23.4%, Defensor Sporting 32.7%. From 11 and 11 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
65BuildingProgreso
Weighted momentum
Progreso carries the sharper recent run (+11 momentum).
54BuildingDefensor Sporting
Progreso
7W · 3D · 1LRecent →LWDWDWWDWWW
Momentum index
Defensor Sporting
5W · 4D · 2LRecent →WDLDWDWLDWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapProgreso +5
Progreso
24 pts64% wins
7W · 3D · 1L · 11 played
For23
Against16
Defensor Sporting
19 pts45% wins
5W · 4D · 2L · 11 played
For21
Against13
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Progreso offensive edge
Progreso faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-7 - Defensor Sporting offensive edge
Defensor Sporting's attack (57%) vs Progreso's defense (50%).
+7
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
H2H in this snapshot
From 3 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1Progreso33%
2Draws
0Defensor Sporting0%