Goal expectancy
1.58Expected goals1.07
From 29 and 29 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Progreso
Estimated win chances: Progreso 49.2%, draw 25.1%, Juventud 25.7%. From 29 and 29 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
58BuildingProgreso
Weighted momentum
Momentum is balanced — recent results cancel out.
52BuildingJuventud
Progreso
16W · 8D · 5LRecent →DDWWDWLDWLLLDWWLWWWWDWWWDDWWW
Momentum index
Juventud
14W · 5D · 10LRecent →LLWWWLLWDWWLDLWWLDDWLWLWWWDLW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapProgreso +9
Progreso
56 pts55% wins
16W · 8D · 5L · 29 played
For53
Against33
Juventud
47 pts48% wins
14W · 5D · 10L · 29 played
For35
Against32
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Progreso offensive edge
Progreso's attack (56%) vs Juventud's defense (50%).
+6 - Juventud offensive edge
Juventud runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-6
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
H2H in this snapshot
From 3 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
0Progreso0%
1Draws
2Juventud67%