Goal expectancy
1.18Expected goals1.26
From 8 and 8 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Progreso 3-3 Liverpool Montevideo Prediction
Balanced — too close to call
Estimated win chances: Progreso 34.4%, draw 27.4%, Liverpool Montevideo 38.2%. From 8 and 8 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
30Cold spellProgreso
Weighted momentum
Liverpool Montevideo arrives with stronger form weighting (+15 momentum).
45MixedLiverpool Montevideo
Progreso · low scoring · cold form
Progreso
1W · 3D · 4LRecent →DLWDDLLL
Momentum index
Liverpool Montevideo
3W · 3D · 2LRecent →DLDWWDLW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapLiverpool Montevideo +6
Progreso
6 pts13% wins
1W · 3D · 4L · 8 played
For6
Against12
Liverpool Montevideo
12 pts38% wins
3W · 3D · 2L · 8 played
For10
Against8
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Progreso offensive edge
Progreso faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-10 - Liverpool Montevideo offensive edge
Liverpool Montevideo's attack (50%) vs Progreso's defense (40%).
+10
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Progresolow scoring · cold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 9 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
4Progreso44%
1Draws
4Liverpool Montevideo44%