Goal expectancy
1.58Expected goals1.26
From 21 and 20 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Open / transitional — model leans Progreso
Estimated win chances: Progreso 44.8%, draw 24.7%, Miramar 30.5%. From 21 and 20 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
60BuildingProgreso
Weighted momentum
Miramar arrives with stronger form weighting (+9 momentum).
69Hot streakMiramar
Miramar · hot form
Progreso
13W · 4D · 4LRecent →WLLLDWWLWWWWDWWWDDWWW
Momentum index
Miramar
11W · 8D · 1LRecent →DWWWDDWDWWLWDWWDWDWD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Progreso
43 pts62% wins
13W · 4D · 4L · 21 played
For40
Against23
Miramar
41 pts55% wins
11W · 8D · 1L · 20 played
For33
Against19
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Progreso offensive edge
Progreso faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-32 - Miramar offensive edge
Miramar's attack (40%) vs Progreso's defense (8%).
+32
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Miramarhot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 4 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
1Progreso25%
2Draws
1Miramar25%