Goal expectancy
1.65Expected goals1.03
From 13 and 12 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Progreso
Estimated win chances: Progreso 51.9%, draw 24.5%, Oriental 23.6%. From 13 and 12 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialMedium
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
86Hot streakProgreso
Weighted momentum
Progreso carries the sharper recent run (+36 momentum).
50MixedOriental
Progreso · compact defense · hot formOriental · compact defense
Progreso
10W · 3D · 0LRecent →WWWWDWWWDDWWW
Momentum index
Oriental
6W · 2D · 4LRecent →DLWLWWLDWLWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Progreso
33 pts77% wins
10W · 3D · 0L · 13 played
For30
Against9
Oriental
20 pts50% wins
6W · 2D · 4L · 12 played
For17
Against10
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Progreso offensive edge
Progreso's attack (65%) vs Oriental's defense (44%).
+21 - Oriental offensive edge
Oriental runs into a stronger home defensive profile.
-21
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Progresocompact defense · hot form
Orientalcompact defense
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
0Progreso0%
3Draws
2Oriental40%