Progreso 1-3 Penarol Prediction

ProgresoProgreso
1 — 3FT
PenarolPenarol
OverviewLineupsStatisticsStandingsEventsPlayersPredictionsFormInjuriesH2H

Updated

ProgresoProgresovsPenarolPenarol

Match DNA · Predictions ↗

Open / transitional — model leans Penarol

Estimated win chances: Progreso 31.8%, draw 24.4%, Penarol 43.8%. From 11 and 11 competition matches.

TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium

Outcome model

Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.

Goal expectancy

1.33Expected goals1.60

From 11 and 11 competition matches

Likely scorelines (Poisson)

  • 1–111.8%
  • 1–29.4%
  • 0–18.9%
  • 2–17.8%
  • 1–07.4%

Form & momentum

Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.

43MixedProgreso
Weighted momentum

Penarol arrives with stronger form weighting (+36 momentum).

79Hot streakPenarol
Penarol · hot form

Progreso

4W · 3D · 4L
Recent →DWLWDLLLDWW
Momentum index

Penarol

7W · 3D · 1L
Recent →DWWWWWDWWDL
Momentum index

Form split comparison

Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window

Season record

League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.

Table gapPenarol +9

Progreso

15 pts
36% wins

4W · 3D · 4L · 11 played

For
14
Against
16
Goal diff -2

Penarol

24 pts
64% wins

7W · 3D · 1L · 11 played

For
26
Against
11
Goal diff +15

Season shape comparison

League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals

League depth signals

Extremes, discipline windows, and split stats from the full league profile.

Matchup edges

Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.

  • Progreso offensive edge

    Progreso faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.

    -25
  • Penarol offensive edge

    Penarol's attack (75%) vs Progreso's defense (50%).

    +25

Team comparison

Comparison indices from the match data partner.

Attack rating

Attacking threat in the final third.

Progreso25
Penarol75

Defense rating

How well each side limits chances.

Progreso50
Penarol50

Momentum

Weighted form score (recent results count more).

Progreso43
Penarol79

Matchup edge

Attack vs opponent defense (positive = favourable matchup).

Progreso0
Penarol100

Volatility

Higher = more swingy results (big losses, goals against).

Progreso30
Penarol30

Form index

Head-to-head form comparison from the model.

Progreso38
Penarol62

H2H pull

Historical dominance in recent meetings.

Progreso0
Penarol0
Penarolhot form