Goal expectancy
1.27Expected goals1.47
From 17 and 17 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Balanced — model leans Penarol
Estimated win chances: Progreso 32.7%, draw 25.5%, Penarol 41.8%. From 17 and 17 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
44MixedProgreso
Weighted momentum
Penarol arrives with stronger form weighting (+32 momentum).
76Hot streakPenarol
Penarol · compact defense · hot form
Progreso
8W · 4D · 5LRecent →DWLLLLLWDWDWWDWWW
Momentum index
Penarol
13W · 3D · 1LRecent →DLWWWWDWWWWDWWWWW
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapPenarol +14
Progreso
28 pts47% wins
8W · 4D · 5L · 17 played
For27
Against26
Penarol
42 pts76% wins
13W · 3D · 1L · 17 played
For32
Against10
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Progreso offensive edge
Progreso faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-30 - Penarol offensive edge
Penarol's attack (70%) vs Progreso's defense (40%).
+30
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Penarolcompact defense · hot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 5 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Progreso60%
1Draws
1Penarol20%