Goal expectancy
0.69Expected goals1.36
From 13 and 13 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Defensive grind — model leans Penarol
Estimated win chances: Progreso 19%, draw 28.1%, Penarol 52.9%. From 13 and 13 competition matches.
Low tempo / cageyTempoMedium
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsLow
Tactical styleDefensive grind
Upset potentialLow
Draw riskHigh
Model confidenceHigh
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
23Cold spellProgreso
Weighted momentum
Penarol arrives with stronger form weighting (+65 momentum).
88Hot streakPenarol
Progreso · low scoring · cold formPenarol · compact defense · hot form
Progreso
1W · 5D · 7LRecent →DLDLWLDDLLLLD
Momentum index
Penarol
10W · 2D · 1LRecent →WWWWWWWLDWWWD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapPenarol +24
Progreso
8 pts8% wins
1W · 5D · 7L · 13 played
For7
Against17
Penarol
32 pts77% wins
10W · 2D · 1L · 13 played
For24
Against3
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Progreso offensive edge
Progreso faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-64 - Penarol offensive edge
Penarol's attack (64%) vs Progreso's defense (0%).
+64
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Progresolow scoring · cold form
Penarolcompact defense · hot form
H2H in this snapshot
From 6 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Progreso50%
1Draws
2Penarol33%