Goal expectancy
1.57Expected goals1.33
From 18 and 18 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Progreso 3-2 Racing Montevideo Prediction
Open / transitional — model leans Progreso
Estimated win chances: Progreso 43.1%, draw 24.6%, Racing Montevideo 32.4%. From 18 and 18 competition matches.
TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
39Cold spellProgreso
Weighted momentum
Momentum is balanced — recent results cancel out.
42MixedRacing Montevideo
Progreso · cold form
Progreso
8W · 4D · 6LRecent →LDWLLLLLWDWDWWDWWW
Momentum index
Racing Montevideo
6W · 5D · 7LRecent →LDWDLWLLWDWDWLLLWD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapProgreso +5
Progreso
28 pts44% wins
8W · 4D · 6L · 18 played
For27
Against28
Racing Montevideo
23 pts33% wins
6W · 5D · 7L · 18 played
For25
Against25
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Progreso offensive edge
Progreso faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-17 - Racing Montevideo offensive edge
Racing Montevideo's attack (70%) vs Progreso's defense (53%).
+17
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
Progresocold form
H2H in this snapshot
From 4 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
3Progreso75%
0Draws
1Racing Montevideo25%