Goal expectancy
1.28Expected goals1.42
From 8 and 8 competition matches
Likely scorelines (Poisson)
Progreso 0-1 Racing Montevideo Prediction
Balanced — model leans Racing Montevideo
Estimated win chances: Progreso 33.9%, draw 25.7%, Racing Montevideo 40.4%. From 8 and 8 competition matches.
TempoMedium
VolatilityMedium
Expected goalsMedium
Tactical styleBalanced
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceLow
Outcome model
Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.
Form & momentum
Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.
37Cold spellProgreso
Weighted momentum
Racing Montevideo arrives with stronger form weighting (+27 momentum).
64BuildingRacing Montevideo
Progreso · High-risk / fragileRacing Montevideo · compact defense
Progreso
1W · 4D · 3LRecent →DWDDDLLL
Momentum index
Racing Montevideo
4W · 1D · 3LRecent →WWLWWLLD
Momentum index
Form split comparison
Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window
Season record
League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.
Table gapRacing Montevideo +6
Progreso
7 pts13% wins
1W · 4D · 3L · 8 played
For10
Against18
Racing Montevideo
13 pts50% wins
4W · 1D · 3L · 8 played
For9
Against6
Season shape comparison
League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals
League depth signals
Matchup edges
Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.
- Progreso offensive edge
Progreso faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.
-23 - Racing Montevideo offensive edge
Racing Montevideo's attack (56%) vs Progreso's defense (33%).
+23
Team comparison
Comparison indices from the match data partner.
ProgresoHigh-risk / fragile
Racing Montevideocompact defense
H2H in this snapshot
From 6 meetings included in this prediction snapshot.
5Progreso83%
0Draws
1Racing Montevideo17%