Progreso 1-0 Wanderers Prediction

ProgresoProgreso
1 — 0FT
WanderersWanderers
OverviewLineupsStatisticsStandingsEventsPlayersPredictionsFormInjuriesH2H

Updated

ProgresoProgresovsWanderersWanderers

Match DNA · Predictions ↗

Open / transitional — model leans Progreso

Estimated win chances: Progreso 44.4%, draw 24%, Wanderers 31.7%. From 7 and 7 competition matches.

TempoHigh
VolatilityLow
Expected goalsHigh
Tactical styleOpen / transitional
Upset potentialHigh
Draw riskMedium
Model confidenceMedium

Outcome model

Sportra's estimate from each team's season goal rates. It is a statistical guide, not betting advice.

Goal expectancy

1.65Expected goals1.36

From 7 and 7 competition matches

Likely scorelines (Poisson)

  • 1–111.5%
  • 2–19.5%
  • 1–08.5%
  • 1–27.8%
  • 2–07%

Form & momentum

Weighted momentum, recent result run, and form-window W–D–L — the live pulse before kickoff.

28Cold spellProgreso
Weighted momentum

Wanderers arrives with stronger form weighting (+22 momentum).

50MixedWanderers
Progreso · cold formWanderers · leaky defense

Progreso

2W · 2D · 3L
Recent →DLLLDWW
Momentum index

Wanderers

3W · 2D · 2L
Recent →DWLDWLW
Momentum index

Form split comparison

Wins, draws, and losses across the sampled form window

Season record

League totals anchoring the snapshot — points, goal balance, and season shape vs opponent.

Table gapWanderers +3

Progreso

8 pts
29% wins

2W · 2D · 3L · 7 played

For
9
Against
11
Goal diff -2

Wanderers

11 pts
43% wins

3W · 2D · 2L · 7 played

For
11
Against
13
Goal diff -2

Season shape comparison

League table W–D–L, goal balance, and form-run counts from league profile signals

League depth signals

Extremes, discipline windows, and split stats from the full league profile.

Matchup edges

Attack vs opponent defense in the matchup comparison.

  • Progreso offensive edge

    Progreso faces a stingier defense than their attack rating suggests.

    -32
  • Wanderers offensive edge

    Wanderers's attack (73%) vs Progreso's defense (41%).

    +32

Team comparison

Comparison indices from the match data partner.

Attack rating

Attacking threat in the final third.

Progreso27
Wanderers73

Defense rating

How well each side limits chances.

Progreso41
Wanderers59

Momentum

Weighted form score (recent results count more).

Progreso28
Wanderers50

Matchup edge

Attack vs opponent defense (positive = favourable matchup).

Progreso-14
Wanderers114

Volatility

Higher = more swingy results (big losses, goals against).

Progreso32
Wanderers39

Form index

Head-to-head form comparison from the model.

Progreso20
Wanderers80

H2H pull

Historical dominance in recent meetings.

Progreso0
Wanderers0
Progresocold form
Wanderersleaky defense